The Long-Term Yield Conundrum. One reason that the10-year yield has remained below where economic fundamentals suggest it should trade is that the Federal Reserve set short-term interest rates near zero.
Author Archives: Charles Scott
New Narrative Alert: Fed Chief Jerome Powell is to blame for the volatility in stocks. We think the news that really drove the market higher last week was the report that economy-wide pre-tax corporate profits were up 10.3% from a year ago (and up 19.4% after taxes – thank you tax cuts!). Focus on fundamentals, not post-event explanations.
Are we still energy dependent? I don’t think so! Since 2012, the U.S. has nearly doubled its oil output, making the U.S. a key global supplier. In fact, in October, the U.S. energy trade balance moved positive, indicating that the U.S. is now energy independent. Said another way, the U.S. is now exporting more energy
Consumers Stay Strong. Look, you could spin this data any way you like, but instead of getting bogged down in the day-to-day figures, we like to focus on fundamentals, and those fundamentals are very strong. Total retail sales are likely to be up 6%+ this year over last year. That’s very strong.
“Fading” Fiscal Stimulus; Really? Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have started a new narrative about economic “headwinds.” They think past rate hikes, slower foreign growth, and “fading fiscal stimulus” should slow the Fed’s rate hikes. But is fiscal stimulus really fading?