Job Market. The US labor market is going from strength to strength. Like with corporate earnings, June jobs data beat consensus estimates – up 213,000 – pushing the average monthly gain for the past year to 198,000 per month.
No More Kid Gloves. What do the internet and China have in common? For better or for worse, policymakers are no longer treating them with kid gloves. This past week, the Supreme Court reversed a decision made before the dawn of the internet that prevented states from taxing sales to their residents unless the business had a “physical presence” in the state. Now, each state gets to decide whether those sales get taxed.
Bonds Misjudge the Future. We see at least two mistaken beliefs that are influencing bond bulls these days. The first mistake is that the Fed will lift rates only once or twice in 2019. We believe four rate hikes are more likely, with more to follow in 2020. The reason is simple. Nominal GDP is accelerating, and likely to grow at a rate of 5%+ over the next few years.