The Gift That Keeps Giving. The economic expansion isn’t going to last forever, but look for the US economy to continue to outperform the doubters until the doubters realize their model of how the economy works has a fundamental flaw.
Blame the Overweight Jockey. In other words, the jockey (size of the government) got fat and weighed down the horse. If they truly want faster growth, policymakers need to focus on slimming down the government, not growing it under the guise of boosting “aggregate demand.” Tax cuts and regulatory relief help. More spending, more bank regulation and negative interest rates have failed to produce results. If we want 3-4% real growth in the future, spending restraint is the answer.
S&P 3650, Dow 32,500. Needless to say, we don’t see a recession anytime soon. The economy is still adapting to lower tax rates and monetary policy remains loose. In addition, home builders are still generating too few homes given our population growth and scrappage rates, while banks are sitting on ample capital.
Good News is Good News. It’s no wonder that the stock market liked what it saw on Friday, a robust job market and healthy economy, and lifted the S&P 500 to its second-highest close on record, just off the November 27 all-time high. Only sixteen trading days remain this year (including today) and, as of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is only 3.3% off our target of 3,250 for year-end.