Farewell to Data Dependence…comments made by Powell at the press conference after the meeting, suggested a 25 basis point rate cut was all but in the bag for the next meeting at the end of July. But with six weeks between June and July’s meetings and a full economic data cycle, what we have seen so far shows that – if the Fed really is data dependent – they shouldn’t cut rates.
Better Economic Signs. None of this means the US economy will grow forever. It won’t. But too many analysts and investors are needlessly fearful of a recession starting soon. We don’t see one this year or in 2020. Beyond that, forecasts are merely guessing. Appetite for risk should improve from here. Smart investors should get in front of it.