Tag Archives: GDP

Add it all up, and we get 2.5% annualized growth. In the context of tax cuts and deregulation, look for this growth to keep pushing profits higher. The bull market is poised to push higher in 2019.

Don’t Compare Stocks to GDP

Don’t Compare Stocks to GDP. The real issue here is that investors should care little about GDP. No one buys shares of GDP. Investors buy shares of companies, and profits are proof that productivity is strong in the private sector. Government distorts the picture, showing both a secular stagnation and “bubble” that don’t really exist.

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initial claims for jobless benefits hit 199,000 in the week ending January 19, the lowest since 1969. And auto analysts are forecasting solid sales of cars and light trucks for the month. In other words, the data shows no justification for doom and gloom.

New Policies, New Path

New Policies, New Path. In this environment, as markets reassess what’s possible, we may have more days like Friday in the equity market. But more economic growth will ultimately be a tailwind for equities, not a headwind. Stock market investors who can’t take a one-day 2.1% drop in equities, or even a 10% correction, shouldn’t be in the stock market to begin with. Those who can remain calm and stay invested will be rewarded.

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Bottom line is we don't see anything about the current level of debt that's going to cause a recession anytime soon

Longest Recovery Ever, Almost

Longest Recovery Ever, Almost. Notice how we didn’t say it’ll be the “best” expansion of all-time, just the longest; it’s not the best by a long shot. From the recession bottom to the expansion peak, real GDP expanded 39% in the 1980s and 43% in the 1990s. So far, eight years in, this one is only up 19%. That’s why we’ve been calling it the Plow Horse Economy.

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