Where’s the Recession? Ten days ago we got the employment report for January, which showed a payroll increase of 304,000 and the highest share of adults working since 2008. Yes, February has seen both initial and continuing unemployment claims average higher than in January, but only slightly. In other words, job growth looks set to continue shutting down economic naysayers.
Tag Archives: Recession
Yield Curve Inversion. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Note has narrowed to 25 basis points, its smallest spread since 2007. This has many investors worried the narrowing spread will lead to an inversion of the yield curve (when short-term rates exceed long-term rates) – which throughout history has often occurred prior to a recession…we do not believe the current narrowing yield spread signals looming recession.