The Economic Engine That Could

The Economic Engine That Could

Nine years into the current bull market more and more are beginning to wonder “how much longer can it go on?” 

Tony Dwyer, an equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, reiterated his S&P 500 target of 3,200 for the end of this year (a nearly 11% rise from current levels), based on the strong manufacturing report this week.  Dwyer went further and projected the index to rise to 3,360 in 2019, highlighting his view that a recession isn’t lurking “anywhere close”. 

He wrote “The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing sector remains on very solid ground.  History shows that since 1950, the ISM typically peaks well before the economy enters a recession or the S&P 500 hits the cycle high, especially over the past three levered economic periods.”

Dwyer notes that on average the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading peaked a median 31.5 months before the start of a recession and that the S&P 500 usually gains about 35.4% in the subsequent two years following the peak. 

While there are a couple of exceptions to his rule, Dwyer notes that previous inflation and interest rate environments were quite different from the current situation. (chart from Canaccord Genuity)

The Economic Engine that Could