Current Commentary

Yes, this is likely to be one of the most optimistic forecasts you see, if not the most optimistic one of all. But, in the end, we do best by our readers when we tell them exactly what we think is going to happen, without altering our projections so we can run with the safety of the herd. Grit your teeth if you have to; those who stay invested in the year ahead should earn substantial rewards.

Dow 28,750 / S&P 500 3,100 

Dow 28,750 / S&P 500 3,100.
Yes, this is likely to be one of the most optimistic forecasts you see, if not the most optimistic one of all. But, in the end, we do best by our readers when we tell them exactly what we think is going to happen, without altering our projections so we can run with the safety of the herd. Grit your teeth if you have to; those who stay invested in the year ahead should earn substantial rewards.

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initial claims for jobless benefits hit 199,000 in the week ending January 19, the lowest since 1969. And auto analysts are forecasting solid sales of cars and light trucks for the month. In other words, the data shows no justification for doom and gloom.

New Narrative Alert: Fed Chief Jerome Powell is to blame for the volatility in stocks.

New Narrative Alert: Fed Chief Jerome Powell is to blame for the volatility in stocks. We think the news that really drove the market higher last week was the report that economy-wide pre-tax corporate profits were up 10.3% from a year ago (and up 19.4% after taxes – thank you tax cuts!). Focus on fundamentals, not post-event explanations.

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