No Sign of Recession. Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.
Dow 28,750 / S&P 500 3,100.
Yes, this is likely to be one of the most optimistic forecasts you see, if not the most optimistic one of all. But, in the end, we do best by our readers when we tell them exactly what we think is going to happen, without altering our projections so we can run with the safety of the herd. Grit your teeth if you have to; those who stay invested in the year ahead should earn substantial rewards.
1. What were your original goals for the stock?
“Stocks will do one of three things: go up, go down or go nowhere. You need to know before you buy it what you’re going to do when these three things happen,” said Charles Scott, a Scottsdale, Ariz., financial advisor and owner of Pelleton Capital Management.
No looming housing bubble. Another reason to believe we’re not in a bubble is that the pace of home building of owner slower than during the previous bubble.
The Long-Term Yield Conundrum. One reason that the10-year yield has remained below where economic fundamentals suggest it should trade is that the Federal Reserve set short-term interest rates near zero.
New Narrative Alert: Fed Chief Jerome Powell is to blame for the volatility in stocks. We think the news that really drove the market higher last week was the report that economy-wide pre-tax corporate profits were up 10.3% from a year ago (and up 19.4% after taxes – thank you tax cuts!). Focus on fundamentals, not post-event explanations.