Lifting Our Target for Stock Prices. The S&P 500 is up 27% from its Christmas Eve low, and 19.3% this calendar year through the close on Friday – not including dividends. Last December, our forecast for 2019 was 3,100. We’re just 3.7% away.
The Longest Economic Expansion. Ten years and a day. But just because it’s the longest doesn’t mean it’s the best…The story that should have held the spotlight these past ten years is entrepreneurs overcoming political obstacles to keep the US economy growing.
This Crazy Rate Cut. We think a rate cut is crazy. However, it makes our bullish case for stocks even easier to defend, in spite of the fact that we think the Fed would be sowing the seeds of future economic problems.
How Social Security Benefits are Calculated. Thank you to Libby Wells for asking me to be a guest contributor for her Bankrates.com article.
Better Economic Signs. None of this means the US economy will grow forever. It won’t. But too many analysts and investors are needlessly fearful of a recession starting soon. We don’t see one this year or in 2020. Beyond that, forecasts are merely guessing. Appetite for risk should improve from here. Smart investors should get in front of it.
No Need for Interest Rate Cuts. Instead, we think policymakers who are interested in promoting economic growth would be better served by turning the focus toward government spending.