Don’t obsess about the Federal Reserve. Instead of obsessing about monetary policy, investors should spend their time this year focused on the resilience of the economy. For example, in spite of the partial government shutdown, initial claims for jobless benefits hit 199,000 in the week ending January 19, the lowest since 1969. And auto analysts are forecasting solid sales of cars and light trucks for the month. In other words, the data shows no justification for doom and gloom.
Solid GDP Growth to Finish 2018. Add it all up, and we get 2.5% annualized growth. In the context of tax cuts and deregulation, look for this growth to keep pushing profits higher. The bull market is poised to push higher in 2019.
The Endless Debt Threat has been going on for thirty years! Bottom line is we don’t see anything about the current level of debt that’s going to cause a recession anytime soon.
How is Your 401(k) Plan Like a Marshmallow? It’s all about the battle between instant gratification and postponing gratification!
No Sign of Recession. Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.
Dow 28,750 / S&P 500 3,100.
Yes, this is likely to be one of the most optimistic forecasts you see, if not the most optimistic one of all. But, in the end, we do best by our readers when we tell them exactly what we think is going to happen, without altering our projections so we can run with the safety of the herd. Grit your teeth if you have to; those who stay invested in the year ahead should earn substantial rewards.