Ignore the Crazy!... It’s the growth in the money supply, or continued lack thereof, that will determine what happens to economic growth and inflation in the next couple of years.

Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing,...or soft landing...

Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball. At present, the futures market appears to be pricing in three more rate hikes this year, 25 basis points each, with one rate cut of 25 basis points very late this year.

January Data Get Hot. A hot inflation report for January might be a surprise to some investors, but it really shouldn’t be. Put all these reports together and we have an economic stew that signals that a “data sensitive” Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates.

Soft Landing? Our forecast for real GDP growth this year is -0.5%, with inflation remaining above 4%. In other words, a recession with higher inflation – stagflation. That’s what we expect…and it’s not a soft landing.

Not Goldilocks. Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.”

The Aftermath Economy. We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. In other words, the US enters the decades ahead with more debt, less spending power, an undereducated population, and less petroleum put aside for national defense. The US has made the future riskier.

Drop in Budget Deficit is a “Sugar High”. Look for bigger budget deficits in the next few years as the revenue “sugar high” wears off.

Reports: Solid Growth, Persistent Inflation... we think inflation will eventually slow down. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to slow down as fast as the Fed thinks.

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation? Interest rates don’t determine inflation; the amount of money circulating in the economy determines inflation. And this is where the problem lies.