Big Government Weighing on Growth. Raising the long-term growth rate of the US economy ought to be a key focus of policymakers.

Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good. The cost of big government just keeps going up and up. It needs to be reversed.

Higher Rates & A Shutdown on the Menu. We think the Powell presser and the dot plots will make it clear the Fed is leaning toward one more rate hike before the year is through.

An Age of Fiscal Limits. Unlike the 1980s, however, politicians don’t seem interested in changing course.

Has the Inflation Threat Passed? We think the optimism is overdone. The M2 measure of the money supply has dropped in the past year and we think that drop is starting to gain traction, including in the form of lower headline inflation.

Still Overvalued. In other words, the Goldilocks future, where the Fed manages everything perfectly, is likely too optimistic.

Burns of Volker? We are forecasting that when all is said and done that the economy ends up a little weaker than the Fed expects this year, but inflation stays higher than the Fed thinks

Is the Recession Threat Dead? We hope they’re right about this; wouldn’t it be great! Unfortunately, ...

Discount the Happy Talk. We are not often pessimistic about equities and think the long-term is still bright. However, we think there are still problems ahead in the near term and investors need to be prepared.

Closer to a Turning Point. Ultimately, recessions are about mistakes...Almost always, it is government policy mistakes that cause this over-investment (or “malinvestment”).