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We're Not Already in a Recession! Thumbnail

We're Not Already in a Recession!

We're Not Already in a Recession! When it comes,... we expect something like the recessions in 1990-91 or 2001, when the unemployment rate went up about 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points, not like the soaring unemployment of the Great Recession or the 2020 Lockdown.

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Unprecedented! Thumbnail

Unprecedented!

Unprecedented! What we really think is going on is both investors and corporate management are having a hard time understanding the real economic impact of “unprecedented” policies. As a result, normal macroeconomic analysis isn’t as helpful.

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