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Current Commentary

The Cost of Lockdowns Thumbnail

The Cost of Lockdowns

The Cost of Lockdowns. It is now clear that the cost of the lockdowns is immense. Locking down the economy threw complicated supply chains into chaos, and restarting them is not as easy as many seem to think.

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Less Government, More Employment Thumbnail

Less Government, More Employment

Less Government, More Employment. The US economy is far from fully healed from the COVID19 disaster. But now that the government has stepped back from extra large payments to the unemployed, we think the labor market is on the verge of a big step forward.

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Resist Inflation Complacency Thumbnail

Resist Inflation Complacency

Resist Inflation Complacency. Some analysts and investors breathed a big sigh of relief on inflation when it was reported last week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August versus a consensus expected 0.4%. But we think any sense of relief is premature.

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Stocks vs. the Economy Thumbnail

Stocks vs. the Economy

Stocks vs. the Economy. The bottom line is that we are bullish for now, but fully recognize that we have been in a pristine environment for stocks...The market is not overvalued, but it is not as undervalued as it once was.

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Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”? Thumbnail

Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”?

Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”? In the end, a "full recovery" of the economy is possible, but damage from past or future shutdowns – and a large partisan bill that once again, like New Deal or Great Society legislation, significantly increases the influence of the government over the economy – threaten its pace.

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Fed Being Tempted Into SIN Thumbnail

Fed Being Tempted Into SIN

Fed Being Tempted Into SIN. We think consistently higher inflation is a bad idea. Printing more money is not a path to sustainable prosperity. Higher inflation would make business planning more difficult and reduce the "real" (inflation-adjusted) wages of workers, particularly those with the least bargaining power, including lower-income workers.

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Capitalism vs. Socialism Thumbnail

Capitalism vs. Socialism

Capitalism vs. Socialism. The history of the world has been a battle between two competing ideologies of how resources should be distributed: Capitalism and Socialism.

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