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Current Commentary

The Seeds of Stagnation Thumbnail

The Seeds of Stagnation

The Seeds of Stagflation. With the money supply having risen so rapidly, and the ability of the economy to keep up with that growth diminished by a more burdensome government, stagflationary pressures (slower growth, higher prices) have been building.

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Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending Thumbnail

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending...The economy is healing rapidly, the bull market remains intact and technology is raising potential future growth. But, government actions could undermine these positive trends. For now, we remain bullish.

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Strong Economic Growth in Q2 Thumbnail

Strong Economic Growth in Q2

Strong Economic Growth in Q2. Remember, though, that much of the recent rapid growth we’ve seen is really just a “sugar high.” Look for economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, and then even more so in 2022.

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S&P...4,500 or Higher? Thumbnail

S&P...4,500 or Higher?

S&P...4,500 or Higher? This does not mean the market always goes up. It doesn't mean that the government is not creating future problems. But, we don't try to time the market. What we do is focus on fundamentals, like profits and interest rates. And right now, we believe the S&P 500 is still undervalued.

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"Twin Deficits" Won't Tank the Dollar  Thumbnail

"Twin Deficits" Won't Tank the Dollar

"Twin Deficits" Won't Tank the Dollar. Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the "twin deficits" and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, means the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies.

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Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief? Thumbnail

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief?

One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years... We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell.

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The “Fake Tight” Labor Market Thumbnail

The “Fake Tight” Labor Market

The “Fake Tight” Labor Market. Is the job market tight, or not? We think the best way to describe it is “fake tight.” ...The key problem with the labor market right now is that the government is still giving out unemployment benefits far in excess of what the situation demands.

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Taper Tantrum Two? Thumbnail

Taper Tantrum Two?

Taper Tantrum Two? However, with so much liquidity in the financial system, we are skeptical that a policy shift toward tapering would create the same kind of market response for a few reasons. First...

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There’s Nothing Normal About this Recovery Thumbnail

There’s Nothing Normal About this Recovery

There’s Nothing Normal About this Recovery... In fact, trying to compare the current rebound to historical events minimizes the pain that COVID-related and government-mandated economic shutdowns have caused...At the same time, giving credit to government spending for creating the current "recovery" is simply not true.

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