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Current Commentary

Resist Inflation Complacency Thumbnail

Resist Inflation Complacency

Resist Inflation Complacency. Some analysts and investors breathed a big sigh of relief on inflation when it was reported last week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August versus a consensus expected 0.4%. But we think any sense of relief is premature.

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Stocks vs. the Economy Thumbnail

Stocks vs. the Economy

Stocks vs. the Economy. The bottom line is that we are bullish for now, but fully recognize that we have been in a pristine environment for stocks...The market is not overvalued, but it is not as undervalued as it once was.

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Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”? Thumbnail

Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”?

Can the U.S. Economy “Fully Recover”? In the end, a "full recovery" of the economy is possible, but damage from past or future shutdowns – and a large partisan bill that once again, like New Deal or Great Society legislation, significantly increases the influence of the government over the economy – threaten its pace.

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Fed Being Tempted Into SIN Thumbnail

Fed Being Tempted Into SIN

Fed Being Tempted Into SIN. We think consistently higher inflation is a bad idea. Printing more money is not a path to sustainable prosperity. Higher inflation would make business planning more difficult and reduce the "real" (inflation-adjusted) wages of workers, particularly those with the least bargaining power, including lower-income workers.

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Capitalism vs. Socialism

Capitalism vs. Socialism. The history of the world has been a battle between two competing ideologies of how resources should be distributed: Capitalism and Socialism.

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Projecting Government Thumbnail

Projecting Government

Projecting Government. Three major issues related to government policy are now looming large among investors’ concerns.

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The Seeds of Stagnation Thumbnail

The Seeds of Stagnation

The Seeds of Stagflation. With the money supply having risen so rapidly, and the ability of the economy to keep up with that growth diminished by a more burdensome government, stagflationary pressures (slower growth, higher prices) have been building.

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Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending Thumbnail

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending...The economy is healing rapidly, the bull market remains intact and technology is raising potential future growth. But, government actions could undermine these positive trends. For now, we remain bullish.

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Strong Economic Growth in Q2 Thumbnail

Strong Economic Growth in Q2

Strong Economic Growth in Q2. Remember, though, that much of the recent rapid growth we’ve seen is really just a “sugar high.” Look for economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, and then even more so in 2022.

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