Tax Policy Outlook. The good news is that we don’t think tax hikes will hit until at least 2026.

Higher Rates & A Shutdown on the Menu. We think the Powell presser and the dot plots will make it clear the Fed is leaning toward one more rate hike before the year is through.

Bank Problems Aren’t Over, But It’s Not 2008. Now that the Fed is lifting interest rates, two things are happening: 1) bank assets bought at lower rates are worth less and 2) rates paid on deposits are now much higher than rates earned on many of these assets.

All Eyes on the Fed... investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences.

The Fed Waffles...The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy.

Ignore the Crazy!... It’s the growth in the money supply, or continued lack thereof, that will determine what happens to economic growth and inflation in the next couple of years.

Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing,...or soft landing...

Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball. At present, the futures market appears to be pricing in three more rate hikes this year, 25 basis points each, with one rate cut of 25 basis points very late this year.

January Data Get Hot. A hot inflation report for January might be a surprise to some investors, but it really shouldn’t be. Put all these reports together and we have an economic stew that signals that a “data sensitive” Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates.

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation? Interest rates don’t determine inflation; the amount of money circulating in the economy determines inflation. And this is where the problem lies.