Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good. The cost of big government just keeps going up and up. It needs to be reversed.

Still Overvalued. In other words, the Goldilocks future, where the Fed manages everything perfectly, is likely too optimistic.

Burns of Volker? We are forecasting that when all is said and done that the economy ends up a little weaker than the Fed expects this year, but inflation stays higher than the Fed thinks

All Eyes on the Fed... investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences.

January Data Get Hot. A hot inflation report for January might be a surprise to some investors, but it really shouldn’t be. Put all these reports together and we have an economic stew that signals that a “data sensitive” Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates.

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation? Interest rates don’t determine inflation; the amount of money circulating in the economy determines inflation. And this is where the problem lies.

The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch... the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July.

Monetary Muddle...The Fed has never managed policy under its new abundant reserve system with inflation rising this fast. No one, even the Fed, knows exactly how rate hikes will affect the economy under this new system.

Refocusing the Fed...If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true.

Respect the Bear... given the recent hastening by the Fed in the pace of rate hikes and policymakers' lack of focus on what they really need to do — a targeted and persistent reduction in M2 growth — we no longer think equities are going to reach a new high (an S&P 500 north of 4800) until one of two things happens.