50% or More? All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday...Powell made it very clear the Fed anticipated raising rates.

Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts. Given the surge in long-term interest rates this year, the US stock market is now fairly valued for the first time in over a dozen years, dating back to the Panic of 2008.

Whipping Inflation. Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say.

Focus on the Money, Not Rates. The bottom line is that monetary policy is still very loose and likely to stay that way. And investors need to follow the money: both M2 overall and the money the banks are getting from the Fed. For now, neither are bearish signs.

What the Feds "Should" Do. There is a time and place for gradualism in monetary policy, particularly when the unemployment rate is still above normal or when inflation is only a little above the Fed's long-term target. This is not that time and place.

Rate Hikes Finally on the Way. The best reason to implement a larger Quantitative Tightening is that the Fed needs to counteract the excessive growth in the M2 measure of the money supply that is the root cause of higher inflation.