What Happened to the Recession? We obviously hope there is no recession on the way. It’s pretty obvious that the stock market isn’t worried. But January’s economic data aren’t as clear as many might think.

The Game Isn't Over. Unprecedented actions on the scale that we experienced in 2020-2022 will bring unexpected results in 2023. So, while we never want to ignore a number like the January jobs report, we have to question how much is signal and how much is noise.

The Aftermath Economy. We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. In other words, the US enters the decades ahead with more debt, less spending power, an undereducated population, and less petroleum put aside for national defense. The US has made the future riskier.

Beware a “Gridlock Rally”. Gridlock has been good for stock market investors in the past few decades, particularly when there’s been a Democratic president and the Republicans in control of at least one house of Congress.

Drop in Budget Deficit is a “Sugar High”. Look for bigger budget deficits in the next few years as the revenue “sugar high” wears off.

The Last Hurrah? An economic storm is coming. The sun is still shining today, but, with almost all the net growth in Q3 coming from the trade sector, the clouds are forming on the horizon.

No Recession, Yet. We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet.

More Trouble Ahead. Why a recession?... a monetary policy that’s tight enough to control inflation is going to send the economy into a recession.

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation? Interest rates don’t determine inflation; the amount of money circulating in the economy determines inflation. And this is where the problem lies.

The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch... the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July.