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Current Commentary

Inflation Revisionism Thumbnail

Inflation Revisionism

Inflation Revisionism...the "revisionists" say that the inflation of the 1970s was good for many people. They argue that home-ownership rose, student debt got wiped out, and inflation reduced the value of the national debt. In other words, if you can see these benefits, why don't we do it again?

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A Question for the Fed Thumbnail

A Question for the Fed

A Question for the Fed It's not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become "secular" and "serious"?

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Unsustainable Thumbnail

Unsustainable

Unsustainable. The problem is that the massive government “stimulus” checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far above where they would be if COVID had never happened, even as the production side of the economy remains relatively weak.

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Biden and Powell vs Summers and Dudley Thumbnail

Biden and Powell vs Summers and Dudley

Biden and Powell vs Summers and Dudley...it's between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary "stimulus" as possible and center-left economists who worry about the economic effects of over-stimulating the economy.

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Resisting the Budget Blowout Thumbnail

Resisting the Budget Blowout

Resisting the Budget Blowout....The best bet now is that spending and taxes both go up, but not nearly as much as President Biden or the far-left has asked for. Hold onto your hats, it's going to be a wild ride.

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The Sugar High Economy Thumbnail

The Sugar High Economy

The Sugar High Economy. Add it all up, and we get 7.0% annualized real GDP growth for the first quarter. That’s very high by historical standards, but the economy has much further to go to reach a full recovery.

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Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap Thumbnail

Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap

Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap...While the market won’t move in a straight line, and a correction is always possible, as the economy opens up, those sectors of the market that fell behind in the past year (because of shutdowns and limited global trade) will be a source of strength.

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Housing Boom to Continue Thumbnail

Housing Boom to Continue

Housing prices have soared in the past year. Given these gains, some are wondering whether housing is back in a 2000s-type bubble. But a deep dive into the data suggests...

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Jobs Are Booming Thumbnail

Jobs Are Booming

Jobs are Booming. On Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2021 employment data, and payrolls increased a staggering 916,000 for the month, easily beating the consensus expected 660,000.

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Tax Hikes are Coming Thumbnail

Tax Hikes are Coming

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year...Bargaining on tax hikes has already started in Washington, at least behind the scenes. It's going to be a long process, but we can say with high conviction that taxes are going up.

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