Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation? Interest rates don’t determine inflation; the amount of money circulating in the economy determines inflation. And this is where the problem lies.

The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch... the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), just like it did back in both June and July.

Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up. The maximum drop in home prices from the peak to the bottom in this cycle should be around 5%, not a 25% implosion like last time.

Biden’s Student Loan Fiasco...In effect, colleges could create massive and perfectly legal money-laundering schemes.

Economic Data...One thing we must remember when looking at economic data is that everything is distorted.

Silly Season-Interpreting Economic Reports. The bottom line is that, for now, the economy continues to grow and inflation remains a very serious problem.

Tax Hikes: Bad, But Bearable...The bottom line is that this budget deal will raise spending and tax rates over the next decade, and this is bad for the economy’s long-term growth potential. But we’ve had much larger tax hikes in the past and survived.

Monetary Muddle...The Fed has never managed policy under its new abundant reserve system with inflation rising this fast. No one, even the Fed, knows exactly how rate hikes will affect the economy under this new system.

Still No Recession. We think these investors are paying too much attention to the GDP numbers; the US is not in a recession, at least not yet.

Refocusing the Fed...If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true.