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Current Commentary

Stay up to date on current financial events and commentary with our weekly blogs.

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Soft Landing?

Soft Landing? Our forecast for real GDP growth this year is -0.5%, with inflation remaining above 4%. In other words, a recession with higher inflation – stagflation. That’s what we expect…and it’s not a soft landing.

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Not Goldilocks

Not Goldilocks. Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.”

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A Plow Horse with Shin Splints

A Plow Horse with Shin Splints... Look for a recession to start in the second half of 2023, with some possibility of it starting earlier in 2023 and some possibility of a delay until early 2024. Until then, expect mediocre economic growth.

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The Aftermath Economy

The Aftermath Economy. We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. In other words, the US enters the decades ahead with more debt, less spending power, an undereducated population, and less petroleum put aside for national defense. The US has made the future riskier.

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Democrats Overperform

Democrats Overperform. Remember: whether you’ve been cheering or jeering the election results, don’t let that cloud your investing judgement.

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