Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again? The pendulum is swinging toward smaller government. If leaders fulfill this desire, investors around the globe will have reason to cheer. While Argentina has followed a different rhythm than many Western countries, the elections of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan changed the direction of global economic growth. Is it happening again?
It’s the Same Bear Market...while we are bearish today, we don’t think it’s the end of the world now.
Big Government Weighing on Growth. Raising the long-term growth rate of the US economy ought to be a key focus of policymakers.
Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good. The cost of big government just keeps going up and up. It needs to be reversed.
Tax Policy Outlook. The good news is that we don’t think tax hikes will hit until at least 2026.
Higher Rates & A Shutdown on the Menu. We think the Powell presser and the dot plots will make it clear the Fed is leaning toward one more rate hike before the year is through.
Where is the Economy? Recessions are ultimately about mistakes, about too much optimism given underlying economic conditions and the need for economic activity to adjust back downward.
An Age of Fiscal Limits. Unlike the 1980s, however, politicians don’t seem interested in changing course.
Here’s Something to “Fitch” About. We think about this because government sponsors this crazy lottery at the same time it shirks its own fiduciary responsibilities.
Not All Recession Theories Make Sense. Why does this matter now? We think a recession is coming because the economy was artificially stimulated during COVID but the M2 money supply has declined in the past year. In addition, by rewarding short-term cash, the inverted yield curve should eventually limit business investment and risk-taking in general.