Is the Recession Threat Dead? We hope they’re right about this; wouldn’t it be great! Unfortunately, ...

Discount the Happy Talk. We are not often pessimistic about equities and think the long-term is still bright. However, we think there are still problems ahead in the near term and investors need to be prepared.

Agents of Change? We can think of two areas in particular that are ripe for change, just in the education system itself.

Battle of the Budget. If an agreement is reached to limit discretionary spending, those limits are not likely to last. History is clear....

Bank Problems Aren’t Over, But It’s Not 2008. Now that the Fed is lifting interest rates, two things are happening: 1) bank assets bought at lower rates are worth less and 2) rates paid on deposits are now much higher than rates earned on many of these assets.

All Eyes on the Fed... investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences.

Closer to a Turning Point. Ultimately, recessions are about mistakes...Almost always, it is government policy mistakes that cause this over-investment (or “malinvestment”).

January Surge Kept Q1 Positive...The problem with forecasting the economy right now is we have never been in this position before, where an unprecedented two-year surge in the money supply (plus massive temporary transfer payments) were closely followed by a dive in the money supply unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.

How to Lose Reserve Currency Status. The question is: will it? Russia, China, Brazil, and others, including Saudi Arabia, all seem to think they can find a way to replace the dollar and undermine US dominance on the world economic stage.

Still Bearish. Given the drop in the money supply, we are headed for a much colder economy; we’re just not there yet.