Stay up to date on current financial events and commentary with our weekly blogs.

Battle of the Budget. If an agreement is reached to limit discretionary spending, those limits are not likely to last. History is clear....

Bank Problems Aren’t Over, But It’s Not 2008. Now that the Fed is lifting interest rates, two things are happening: 1) bank assets bought at lower rates are worth less and 2) rates paid on deposits are now much higher than rates earned on many of these assets.

All Eyes on the Fed... investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences.

Closer to a Turning Point. Ultimately, recessions are about mistakes...Almost always, it is government policy mistakes that cause this over-investment (or “malinvestment”).

January Surge Kept Q1 Positive...The problem with forecasting the economy right now is we have never been in this position before, where an unprecedented two-year surge in the money supply (plus massive temporary transfer payments) were closely followed by a dive in the money supply unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.

How to Lose Reserve Currency Status. The question is: will it? Russia, China, Brazil, and others, including Saudi Arabia, all seem to think they can find a way to replace the dollar and undermine US dominance on the world economic stage.

Still Bearish. Given the drop in the money supply, we are headed for a much colder economy; we’re just not there yet.

The Fed Waffles...The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy.

Heading Toward a National Bank?...because it seems that crisis by crisis – the Federal Reserve, lawmakers, and regulators – are busy designing a financial system that looks a great deal like a national bank.

Ignore the Crazy!... It’s the growth in the money supply, or continued lack thereof, that will determine what happens to economic growth and inflation in the next couple of years.