Has the Inflation Threat Passed? We think the optimism is overdone. The M2 measure of the money supply has dropped in the past year and we think that drop is starting to gain traction, including in the form of lower headline inflation.
Still Overvalued. In other words, the Goldilocks future, where the Fed manages everything perfectly, is likely too optimistic.
The Red, White, and Blue Swan. As we approach July 4th it's important to take a step back and realize that a Red, White and Blue Swan really did allow people to make their own history and truly change the world! Happy 4th of July to you all.
Burns of Volker? We are forecasting that when all is said and done that the economy ends up a little weaker than the Fed expects this year, but inflation stays higher than the Fed thinks
Is the Recession Threat Dead? We hope they’re right about this; wouldn’t it be great! Unfortunately, ...
Discount the Happy Talk. We are not often pessimistic about equities and think the long-term is still bright. However, we think there are still problems ahead in the near term and investors need to be prepared.
Agents of Change? We can think of two areas in particular that are ripe for change, just in the education system itself.
Battle of the Budget. If an agreement is reached to limit discretionary spending, those limits are not likely to last. History is clear....
Bank Problems Aren’t Over, But It’s Not 2008. Now that the Fed is lifting interest rates, two things are happening: 1) bank assets bought at lower rates are worth less and 2) rates paid on deposits are now much higher than rates earned on many of these assets.
All Eyes on the Fed... investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences.