January Surge Kept Q1 Positive...The problem with forecasting the economy right now is we have never been in this position before, where an unprecedented two-year surge in the money supply (plus massive temporary transfer payments) were closely followed by a dive in the money supply unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.
How to Lose Reserve Currency Status. The question is: will it? Russia, China, Brazil, and others, including Saudi Arabia, all seem to think they can find a way to replace the dollar and undermine US dominance on the world economic stage.
Still Bearish. Given the drop in the money supply, we are headed for a much colder economy; we’re just not there yet.
The Fed Waffles...The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy.
Heading Toward a National Bank?...because it seems that crisis by crisis – the Federal Reserve, lawmakers, and regulators – are busy designing a financial system that looks a great deal like a national bank.
Ignore the Crazy!... It’s the growth in the money supply, or continued lack thereof, that will determine what happens to economic growth and inflation in the next couple of years.
What Happened to the Recession? We obviously hope there is no recession on the way. It’s pretty obvious that the stock market isn’t worried. But January’s economic data aren’t as clear as many might think.
Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing,...or soft landing...
Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball. At present, the futures market appears to be pricing in three more rate hikes this year, 25 basis points each, with one rate cut of 25 basis points very late this year.
January Data Get Hot. A hot inflation report for January might be a surprise to some investors, but it really shouldn’t be. Put all these reports together and we have an economic stew that signals that a “data sensitive” Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates.