Stay up to date on current financial events and commentary with our weekly blogs.

Ignore the Crazy!... It’s the growth in the money supply, or continued lack thereof, that will determine what happens to economic growth and inflation in the next couple of years.

What Happened to the Recession? We obviously hope there is no recession on the way. It’s pretty obvious that the stock market isn’t worried. But January’s economic data aren’t as clear as many might think.

Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing,...or soft landing...

Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball. At present, the futures market appears to be pricing in three more rate hikes this year, 25 basis points each, with one rate cut of 25 basis points very late this year.

January Data Get Hot. A hot inflation report for January might be a surprise to some investors, but it really shouldn’t be. Put all these reports together and we have an economic stew that signals that a “data sensitive” Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates.

The Game Isn't Over. Unprecedented actions on the scale that we experienced in 2020-2022 will bring unexpected results in 2023. So, while we never want to ignore a number like the January jobs report, we have to question how much is signal and how much is noise.

Debt Limit Drama. But the real root of the fiscal problem, and our biggest concern, isn’t the debt or the deficits, it’s government overspending...The bottom line is that excessive spending leads to economic ills.

Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead. First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter. But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday. Why? Because the report shows what’s going on in the rearview mirror. Meanwhile, there’s an economic collision ahead.

Soft Landing? Our forecast for real GDP growth this year is -0.5%, with inflation remaining above 4%. In other words, a recession with higher inflation – stagflation. That’s what we expect…and it’s not a soft landing.

Not Goldilocks. Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.”