Stay up to date on current financial events and commentary with our weekly blogs.

We were bullish in 2021 and bullishness obviously paid off. Our year-end 2022 call for the S&P 500 is 5,250 (up 11.4% from last Friday), and we expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise to 40,000.

Volatility and Fear. In recent weeks, the stock market has decided the economic pain associated with an eventual tightening of fiscal and monetary policy is more likely to come sooner rather than later.

Riding the COVID Rollercoaster. In our opinion, it's not the new variant that is the problem, but the government's potential reaction to it.

Tuesday Results and the 2022 Economic Outlook. From a forecasting point of view, 2021 was simple. Solid economic growth, higher inflation, and a bull market in stocks have been our mantra all year along. As we focus on 2022, the Fed is still pumping money, interest rates remain low, and the economy continues to add back the jobs it lost during lockdowns. At the same time, election results show a backlash against bigger government. For 2022, we watch with cautious optimism.

Eyes on the Federal Reserve Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve this week and our expectation is that it will finally announce an overdue tapering of quantitative easing.

Slower Economic Growth in Q3. Consumption, Government, Trade...Add it all up, and we get 2.0% annualized real GDP growth for the third quarter, nowhere close to the “sugar high” 6.5% annual rate of growth in the first half of the year.

Focus on the Data, Not the Political Spin. The bottom line is that the employment report really wasn't that bad. Yes, some disappointing numbers, but the economy has not ground to a halt.

The Cost of Lockdowns. It is now clear that the cost of the lockdowns is immense. Locking down the economy threw complicated supply chains into chaos, and restarting them is not as easy as many seem to think.

Less Government, More Employment. The US economy is far from fully healed from the COVID19 disaster. But now that the government has stepped back from extra large payments to the unemployed, we think the labor market is on the verge of a big step forward.

Stocks vs. the Economy. The bottom line is that we are bullish for now, but fully recognize that we have been in a pristine environment for stocks...The market is not overvalued, but it is not as undervalued as it once was.