Strong Economic Growth in Q2. Remember, though, that much of the recent rapid growth we’ve seen is really just a “sugar high.” Look for economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, and then even more so in 2022.
S&P...4,500 or Higher? This does not mean the market always goes up. It doesn't mean that the government is not creating future problems. But, we don't try to time the market. What we do is focus on fundamentals, like profits and interest rates. And right now, we believe the S&P 500 is still undervalued.
Target Date Funds: A 'Time Bomb' in a Retirement Tool for the Masses? What You Need to Know...
"Twin Deficits" Won't Tank the Dollar. Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the "twin deficits" and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, means the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies.
One of the key decisions President Biden will make later this year is who is going to run the Federal Reserve for the next four years... We think the choice will ultimately come down to two people: Roger Ferguson or Jerome Powell.
The “Fake Tight” Labor Market. Is the job market tight, or not? We think the best way to describe it is “fake tight.” ...The key problem with the labor market right now is that the government is still giving out unemployment benefits far in excess of what the situation demands.
Taper Tantrum Two? However, with so much liquidity in the financial system, we are skeptical that a policy shift toward tapering would create the same kind of market response for a few reasons. First...
There’s Nothing Normal About this Recovery... In fact, trying to compare the current rebound to historical events minimizes the pain that COVID-related and government-mandated economic shutdowns have caused...At the same time, giving credit to government spending for creating the current "recovery" is simply not true.
Inflation Revisionism...the "revisionists" say that the inflation of the 1970s was good for many people. They argue that home-ownership rose, student debt got wiped out, and inflation reduced the value of the national debt. In other words, if you can see these benefits, why don't we do it again?
A Question for the Fed It's not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term. How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When does transitory and cyclical become "secular" and "serious"?