The resilience of the economy and corporations has rarely been tested as it was this year. This experience, combined with recent announcements about vaccines and therapies, will lead to further economic growth. Some uncertainty remains, it's never fully gone, but when we compare the unknowns of today to that of just seven months ago, the risk to remaining invested in great companies has substantially declined.
As far as policy goes, what all this means is that a major tax hike, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, and court packing are off the table. Yes, a Biden Administration will generate more rules and regulations, but the federal courts and all those Trump appointees during the past four years are likely to make sure agencies and departments stick to their legal mandates as passed by Congress.
No More Lockdowns...we also need to come to grips with the fact that shutdowns cause long-term harm. We all know the physical and mental health problems that business and school closures have on people. These are real.
To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter...Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question remains about how much might it slow?
There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third-quarter real GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annual rate.
COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, ...But for the third quarter, the US is tracing out a V-shaped bounce and likely grew somewhere between 30 - 35% at an annual rate, the fastest increase in real GDP for any quarter since at least World War II.
Again, inflation averaged 1.5% over the past ten years with no serious consequences to the economy. By allowing inflation to average 2.5% over the next ten years, how does that change the past? The answer: it can't!...What it does do is change the future. In essence, the Fed is saying they really don't have a 2% inflation target, they have a target above 2% for the foreseeable future. And this is worrisome
The competition between states that open and those that don’t – at the political, business, sports, school, and even family level – will lead to even more opening of the economy in the months ahead. For a self-sustaining recovery to fully catch hold, it is reopening, not additional stimulus, that is the key.
The Long Slog Recovery! The bottom line is that a full economic recovery in the US is still multiple years away. The surge in growth in the third quarter is largely related to many businesses going from a total lockdown to a new COVID-19 normal. Production and construction six feet apart, no fans in the stands, and 50% occupancy.
As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% "annualized" growth rate in Q3.