We have argued that stimulus spending that offsets damage from shutdowns can be viewed as “just compensation” for a “taking.” But we are beyond that now. The pandemic is winding down, and economic activity is being boosted by both re-opening and stimulus. What is really happening today is that we are overstimulating the economy. And while this is great for earnings and equity markets in the near-term, it has long-term risks.
The bull market still has further to run, and we stand by our year-end projection for the S&P 500 of 4200. The Federal Reserve has the US economy awash in liquidity, with the M2 measure of the money supply up 25% from a year ago. Another very large fiscal “stimulus” package is wending its way through Congress, and is likely to hit the President’s desk relatively soon.
All this money printing threatens to eventually create a sugar high in equities. We aren't there yet, but markets are floating on a sea of new money. In fact, it's more like a tsunami! Inflation hedges (real estate, commodities, materials companies) will do well. Traditional fixed income (long-term bonds) is at risk. The return of inflation because of misguided policy choices is a very real threat to the long-term health of the US economy.
Yes, 2021 is starting off as crazy as 2020. They don’t agree on the Green New Deal, or Socialism, but Ted Cruz and AOC both agree that limiting investor access to markets is a mistake. In case you missed it, last week, Robinhood, a new online trading platform that marketed itself as democratizing investment, stopped investors from buying certain stocks.
Can Massive Deficits Really Be Financed?...the US is moving into uncharted territory by increasing debt this rapidly. Last year, the Fed absorbed a large part of the increase in debt. This year, it looks like the Fed will absorb a much smaller share, which means the Treasury has to find many more buyers.
Growth Continued in the 4th Quarter of 2020. The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either.
The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many dramatic policies, which require 60 votes, but tax policy is likely to change in some significant ways.
When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others.
We hear every day about the breakdown of America...with both sides telling us "this is the end." As students of history, we don't buy it. The US has been in pickles before, but we always "work the problem."
If you must find "evil" in either of these narratives, remember that evil is ultimately perpetrated by individuals, not the institutions in which they operate. And this is why it's important to favor economic and political systems that limit the use and abuse of power over others. In the story of baby Jesus, a government law that requires innkeepers to always have extra rooms, or to take in anyone who asks, would "fix" the problem.