The Long Slog Recovery! The bottom line is that a full economic recovery in the US is still multiple years away. The surge in growth in the third quarter is largely related to many businesses going from a total lockdown to a new COVID-19 normal. Production and construction six feet apart, no fans in the stands, and 50% occupancy.
As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We expect a 25% "annualized" growth rate in Q3.
What policies could the US put in place to limit the damage to future generations from all this borrowing? If we are asking our children and grandchildren to pay for this, are there things we can do that boost growth and limit the odds of more bailouts ahead?
The key lesson in all this should be that it is a fool's errand to try to time the market. Imagine being told on February 15 that the world was about to be hit by a widespread virus for which there was no known therapy or cure, that governments were going to react by shutting down massive swaths of their economies, ...
the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we're penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the housing market.
What many investors are focused on is a scenario where Biden wins and the Democrats also take the Senate. In that scenario, the Democrats could use the special budget process on Capitol Hill to raise taxes permanently (meaning no natural sunset) with a simple majority, like President Clinton did in 1993.
A Healing Economy...last week's key reports on the economy clearly show we're recovering...In addition, recent declines in unemployment claims signal that the improvement in the labor market is continuing.
Late last week, plenty of headlines blared that real GDP declined 32.9% in the second quarter...Real GDP was not 32.9% lower in Q2 than it was in Q1; it was 9.5% lower...In other words, the drop wasn't 32.9% for one quarter, it fell at a 32.9% annualized rate for one quarter.
The key to remember is that we have already seen the worst of the crisis. The US economy will take years to get back to where it was before COVID-19, but a recovery has already started. Businesses and entrepreneurs have adapted and made the best of an awful situation, including massive government overreach. Better days are headed our way.
A lunch has to come from somewhere, and once it is consumed, it’s not available for someone else to consume. Another way to say it, someone needs to produce what we consume. Supply comes before demand. Without supply – without production – we have nothing to bring to “the market” in exchange for something else.