The Fed is flailing. Our view remains that last week’s rate cut wasn’t needed, nor are further rate cuts in the months ahead. Nominal GDP is up 4.0% in the past year and up at a 5.0% annual rate in the past two years. Gold is up 12.3% so far this year. There are plenty of excess reserves in the banking system. The Fed is not tight.
Solid GDP Report for Q2…Core GDP – combining personal consumption, business investment, and home building – grew at a very solid 3.2% annual rate in Q2. Meanwhile, profit reports are widely beating expectations. The economy is much stronger than conventional wisdom thinks and has been since 2009.
10 Ways the Weather Affects Your Spending Habits. For Charles C. Scott, a financial planner in Scottsdale, AZ, it’s traveling to a more modest climate like San Diego to avoid the harsh summer heat of Arizona.
Temporary Tepid Growth for Q. This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we’re projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate.
Farewell to Data Dependence…comments made by Powell at the press conference after the meeting, suggested a 25 basis point rate cut was all but in the bag for the next meeting at the end of July. But with six weeks between June and July’s meetings and a full economic data cycle, what we have seen so far shows that – if the Fed really is data dependent – they shouldn’t cut rates.
Lifting Our Target for Stock Prices. The S&P 500 is up 27% from its Christmas Eve low, and 19.3% this calendar year through the close on Friday – not including dividends. Last December, our forecast for 2019 was 3,100. We’re just 3.7% away.
The Longest Economic Expansion. Ten years and a day. But just because it’s the longest doesn’t mean it’s the best…The story that should have held the spotlight these past ten years is entrepreneurs overcoming political obstacles to keep the US economy growing.
This Crazy Rate Cut. We think a rate cut is crazy. However, it makes our bullish case for stocks even easier to defend, in spite of the fact that we think the Fed would be sowing the seeds of future economic problems.
How Social Security Benefits are Calculated. Thank you to Libby Wells for asking me to be a guest contributor for her Bankrates.com article.
Better Economic Signs. None of this means the US economy will grow forever. It won’t. But too many analysts and investors are needlessly fearful of a recession starting soon. We don’t see one this year or in 2020. Beyond that, forecasts are merely guessing. Appetite for risk should improve from here. Smart investors should get in front of it.