Tax Hikes: Bad, But Bearable...The bottom line is that this budget deal will raise spending and tax rates over the next decade, and this is bad for the economy’s long-term growth potential. But we’ve had much larger tax hikes in the past and survived.
Monetary Muddle...The Fed has never managed policy under its new abundant reserve system with inflation rising this fast. No one, even the Fed, knows exactly how rate hikes will affect the economy under this new system.
Still No Recession. We think these investors are paying too much attention to the GDP numbers; the US is not in a recession, at least not yet.
Refocusing the Fed...If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true.
Mortgage Reset Alarmism is Off the Mark... But, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, only 3.7% of these loans are adjustable, or about $450 billion.
How About More Freedom? In our view, we are still suffering from three major policy mistakes. First, running an overly loose monetary policy. Second, handing out too many government checks, which allowed American consumers to borrow from future production and spend more in the past two years than they would have if no pandemic had ever occurred. And third, shutting down many parts of the economy through government mandates at multiple levels.
We're Not Already in a Recession! When it comes,... we expect something like the recessions in 1990-91 or 2001, when the unemployment rate went up about 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points, not like the soaring unemployment of the Great Recession or the 2020 Lockdown.
Respect the Bear... given the recent hastening by the Fed in the pace of rate hikes and policymakers' lack of focus on what they really need to do — a targeted and persistent reduction in M2 growth — we no longer think equities are going to reach a new high (an S&P 500 north of 4800) until one of two things happens.
50% or More? All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday...Powell made it very clear the Fed anticipated raising rates.
No Hurricane, Yet. The employment report for May confirmed that the US economy continues to grow. Has a recession already started? Certainly not.