Stay up to date on current financial events and commentary with our weekly blogs.

S&P 3,900 – Dow 33,000. Predicting stock values in 2023 is tough. Unprecedented actions during COVID leaves a wide range of possible outcomes.

A Plow Horse with Shin Splints... Look for a recession to start in the second half of 2023, with some possibility of it starting earlier in 2023 and some possibility of a delay until early 2024. Until then, expect mediocre economic growth.

This Rally Shouldn’t Last. It’s that special time of the year...Many pundits are going to make sweeping conclusions about the economy based on these very limited reports.

The Aftermath Economy. We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. In other words, the US enters the decades ahead with more debt, less spending power, an undereducated population, and less petroleum put aside for national defense. The US has made the future riskier.

The Last Hurrah? An economic storm is coming. The sun is still shining today, but, with almost all the net growth in Q3 coming from the trade sector, the clouds are forming on the horizon.

No Recession, Yet. We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet.

Silly Season-Interpreting Economic Reports. The bottom line is that, for now, the economy continues to grow and inflation remains a very serious problem.

Monetary Muddle...The Fed has never managed policy under its new abundant reserve system with inflation rising this fast. No one, even the Fed, knows exactly how rate hikes will affect the economy under this new system.

Still No Recession. We think these investors are paying too much attention to the GDP numbers; the US is not in a recession, at least not yet.

Refocusing the Fed...If you follow the financial press, the conventional wisdom has come to the simple conclusion that the way to fight inflation is raising interest rates. Unfortunately, this is just not true.