How About More Freedom? In our view, we are still suffering from three major policy mistakes. First, running an overly loose monetary policy. Second, handing out too many government checks, which allowed American consumers to borrow from future production and spend more in the past two years than they would have if no pandemic had ever occurred. And third, shutting down many parts of the economy through government mandates at multiple levels.
We're Not Already in a Recession! When it comes,... we expect something like the recessions in 1990-91 or 2001, when the unemployment rate went up about 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points, not like the soaring unemployment of the Great Recession or the 2020 Lockdown.
50% or More? All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday...Powell made it very clear the Fed anticipated raising rates.
No Hurricane, Yet. The employment report for May confirmed that the US economy continues to grow. Has a recession already started? Certainly not.
The Outlook for November Elections. We are now about five months away from the mid-term elections that will decide who controls the Senate and House of Representatives for the next two years.
Unprecedented! What we really think is going on is both investors and corporate management are having a hard time understanding the real economic impact of “unprecedented” policies. As a result, normal macroeconomic analysis isn’t as helpful.
A Recession Is Unlikely in 2022...market pessimism has gotten ahead of itself and there is room for economic news to come in better than expected in the immediate year ahead.
Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts. Given the surge in long-term interest rates this year, the US stock market is now fairly valued for the first time in over a dozen years, dating back to the Panic of 2008.
Slower Growth in Q1...Because of the shutdown and government actions growth has been uneven...will start to balance out during 2022 and beyond.
We Are All Keynesians Now...The way out is to cut spending, cut tax rates, cut regulation, and tighten money enough to stop inflation. Because in the end, Keynesian policies don’t create wealth…free and open markets do.