Don’t Count on a Rate Cut. The US economy is nowhere even close to needing one rate cut much less two. Nominal GDP – real GDP plus inflation – was up at a 3.8% annual rate in the first quarter, is up 5.1% from a year ago, and is up at a 4.8% annual rate in the past two years, all well above the federal funds rate of 2.375%.
Trade War Hysterics. Anyone can invent a scenario where some sort of Smoot-Hawley-like global trade war happens. Realistically, though, that appears very unlikely…In the end, China wants to trade with the West, not North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela. China needs the West. And all these trade war hysterics just aren’t warranted.
10 Tough Conversations You Need to Have Before You Retire. Thank you to Cameron Huddleston for including me in her article for GoBankingRates.com. You’re retired, now what? For many, spending up to 10 plus hours a day working was not uncommon. What will you do to fill every day in retirement for the next 25-35 years? Knowing the answer is key to your wellbeing in retirement.
The Big Picture and the Fed. If you take a long hike up a mountain, there’s plenty to appreciate along the way. But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view. With that in mind, let’s forget about the April employment report – which saw a combination of very fast payroll growth and moderate wage growth – and think about where the labor market stands in general.
Good-bye Recession Fears. Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. Oops! The US economy accelerated in the first quarter, with real GDP up at a 3.2% annual rate for the quarter and from a year ago.
Our Resilient Economy. It wasn’t that long ago that some economists and investors were seriously concerned about US growth going negative for the first quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrials Average and S&P 500 are breathing down the neck of record highs set last Fall. Some take that as a sign to sell, time to shift out of equities and realize gains. We think that would be a mistake.
Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first-quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1, which would have been the slowest growth since the weather-related negative reading in the first quarter of 2014. But this time it was seen as a new trend leading us toward a recession.
We’ve been “Comrades in Supply-side Arms” with Stephen Moore (now a Federal Reserve nominee) and Larry Kudlow (Administration Economist) for decades, with very few disagreements on economic policy. However, with both having called for a 50 basis point cut in short-term rates, we find ourselves in total disagreement with their conclusion.
It feels like we are living in the Land of Oz and the Fed is the “all-powerful” wizard in control.