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Whatever happened to the recession calls? Seems like just a few weeks ago that the correction in the stock market, as well as the partial government shutdown, had convinced many analysts and investors the US was about to enter a recession.

We’ve written about it over and over, and while many advisors seem to understand, the media, politicians, and many analysts don’t…or won’t. So, we thought we’d try again to explain why so many people don’t understand the nearly ten-year-long bull market in U.S. equity values.

When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 – journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we agree.

Normally, the end of January sees the government’s first estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. But with no end in sight for the shutdown, which has already seen numerous other data releases postponed – including figures on retail sales, international trade, inventories, construction, and durable goods – it’s very unlikely the GDP report will arrive on time.

For the more than three decades we have been involved in the analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and government debt are all at record highs, and, therefore, the theory goes, the economy is tempting fate.

There was a classic psychological study done in the early 1960’s at Stanford University that became known as ‘”The Marshmallow Test”. Young children were given the option of eating one marshmallow right now or getting two marshmallows if they waited 15-20 minutes.

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.

Early in 2018 we said the US economy has gone from being a Plow Horse to Kevlar. Nothing that has been thrown at the economy since – neither trade conflicts nor tweets, not higher short-term interest rates nor the correction in stocks – is likely to pierce that armor.

1. What were your original goals for the stock? “Stocks will do one of three things: go up, go down or go nowhere. You need to know before you buy it what you’re going to do when these three things happen,” said Charles Scott, a Scottsdale, Ariz., financial advisor and owner of Pelleton Capital Management.