When it comes to investing, millennials are a cautious group. In fact, nearly half think it’s too risky to invest, according to the BlackRock Global Investor Pulse Survey. Rather than buying stocks and bonds, 70 percent of adults ages 25 to 36 are clinging to cash assets.
The clock is winding down, and the United Kingdom has some major decisions to make. Should it stay in the European Union or should it go? If it goes, under what terms? Some analysts and investors are concerned about a “Hard Brexit,” in which the UK supposedly plunges into chaos as they crash out of the EU without an agreement.
Whatever happened to the recession calls? Seems like just a few weeks ago that the correction in the stock market, as well as the partial government shutdown, had convinced many analysts and investors the US was about to enter a recession.
We’ve written about it over and over, and while many advisors seem to understand, the media, politicians, and many analysts don’t…or won’t. So, we thought we’d try again to explain why so many people don’t understand the nearly ten-year-long bull market in U.S. equity values.
When it comes to monetary policy, one thing looks certain for 2019 – journalists, pundits, investors, and analysts will pay it way more attention than it deserves. The spotlight is currently on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will issue their first statement of the new year. The consensus expects no changes in rates, and we agree.
Normally, the end of January sees the government’s first estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. But with no end in sight for the shutdown, which has already seen numerous other data releases postponed – including figures on retail sales, international trade, inventories, construction, and durable goods – it’s very unlikely the GDP report will arrive on time.
For the more than three decades we have been involved in the analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and government debt are all at record highs, and, therefore, the theory goes, the economy is tempting fate.
There was a classic psychological study done in the early 1960’s at Stanford University that became known as ‘”The Marshmallow Test”. Young children were given the option of eating one marshmallow right now or getting two marshmallows if they waited 15-20 minutes.
Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed.